“‘It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when.’”
Before COVID-19 thundered onto the scene, it was avian influenza (a.k.a. Bird Flu) which kept epidemiologists up at night. Avian influenza was (likely) responsible for one of the deadliest plagues in human history—the 1918 “Spanish Flu” pandemic. It had contributed genes to the mini-pandemics of 1957 and 1968. And like all similar viruses, it was constantly developing new variants to sidestep existing immunity.
Unfortunately for epidemiologists (and the world), it's looking like Bird Flu is campaigning again for the office of Global Pandemic. Here’s what you need to know about Bird Flu, and what you can do about it.
What Is Bird Flu?
“Influenza viruses bind to what are called sialic acid receptors. The accepted wisdom suggests that avian flu viruses preferentially bind to one type of sialic acid receptor predominant in birds, whereas human seasonal flu viruses bind to another type of sialic acid receptor predominant in the human respiratory tract[...But] both receptor types have now been found in the respiratory tracts of humans and birds. So, it’s not clear that the virus would need to bind to the ‘human’ receptor to cause infection[...]”
Avian Influenza, or Bird Flu, is a group of influenza A subtypes which circulate primarily in sea birds and poultry. In addition to animal suffering, it sometimes leads to financial hardship as farmers are forced to cull entire flocks. Bird Flu also has a nasty tendency to occasionally jump from farm birds to farm workers. In humans, symptoms of recent strains range from minor conjunctivitis to death. Per recent reporting in the New York Times, “an older [animal] version of the virus circulating in Asia has killed about half of those [humans] infected.”
Can Humans Get Bird Flu?
“Since 1500, there appear to have been 14 or more influenza pandemics; in the past 133 years of the “microbial era” (1876 to the present) there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, 1977, and 2009.”
The good news is that most of the time, avian influenza viruses are unable to jump between people; that is, you can get Bird Flu from a bird, but you can’t get it from someone who has Bird Flu. There are important exceptions, however, to this trend.
According to some experts, Avian influenza once spit out a variety capable of widespread human-to-human transmission — the 1918 Spanish Flu. As humans had no previous immunity to the virus, it spread rapidly through the world, causing ~50 million deaths. And it's still with us today. According to “Influenza: The Once and Future Pandemic,” “all of the influenza A viruses circulating since that time, up to the present, are direct descendants of the 1918 virus.” (Full disclosure: some researchers disagree that the 1918 pandemic was caused by a novel avian strain.)
If a human infected with avian influenza also acquires human influenza, the 2 viruses can swap genes. This tends to cause less destructive pandemics, as the resulting hybrid isn’t entirely unfamiliar to the human immune system; nevertheless, they are still pandemics. Such gene-swapping probably caused the pandemics of 1957 and 1968, each of which resulted in 1-4 million deaths.
The swine flu outbreak of 2009 was also indirectly descended from Avian influenza; though minor by pandemic standards, it still killed nearly 1,300 children.
How Did Bird Flu Start?
“’If it goes into the general public, it’s too late[...]We’ve missed the boat.’”
Strains of Bird Flu which cause serious illness in animals are referred to as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). According to a 2009 summary of Bird Flu’s history, HPAI has been around since at least 1878. However, in 1996, a new strain called H5N1 first appeared in geese in the Guangdong province of China. Since then, outbreaks among animals have at least doubled, averaging one outbreak every 1.18 years between 1996 and 2008.
Recently, H5N1 appears to have made some sort of evolutionary leap. Per The Telegraph, “H5N1 has been circulating for over twenty years, but in 2020 picked up speed – triggering an animal pandemic that has killed tens of millions of mammals and birds, including foxes, seals, alpacas, polar bears, and mountain lions.” Granted, many of these mammals acquired the virus from close contact with birds. But in a few cases, the virus appears to have evolved the ability to spread not from bird-to-mammal, but from mammal to mammal.
Such is the case right now with America’s dairy cows. H5N1 has been found in 131 herds over 12 states and counting. These cows aren’t getting Bird Flu from barn sparrows; they are getting it from each other. Now, barn mice are beginning to pick up the occasional infection as well (albeit perhaps not from each other yet), bringing a novel infection one step closer to our homes and offices. The more times the virus encounters humans, the more chances it has to adapt for human-to-human spread.
How Likely Is Another Bird Flu Pandemic?
“‘Personal view. Greatest risk [of] devastating flu pandemic is avian/animal flu that infects [an] intermediate mammal.’”
All things considered, a Bird Flu variant with pandemic potential is inevitable. But will it be on par with 1918 or 2009? As “The Once and Future Pandemic” puts it, “Despite the likelihood that humans and other mammals have been exposed to countless avian viruses over many centuries, the last [3] pandemics have resulted from reassortment of preexisting human-adapted or swine-adapted viruses with imported genes derived from avian influenza viruses, not from de novo adaptation of avian viruses to humans.” In other words, a novel Bird Flu pandemic is less likely than existing mammalian strains picking up new genes from the avian virus.
That being said, such a mix and match of viral genes is exactly the scenario we are risking now. Bird Flu doesn’t have to bring civilization to its knees with a novel virus. Even if it does no more than donate a few key mutations to existing human or porcine strains, the economic and medical impact could still be significant (as was seen in 1957, 1968, and 2009).
Viruses will continue to innovate, so humanity has to as well. Whether H5N1 becomes a little pandemic or a big nothing depends on how we use the tools available to us.
What Should We Do About Bird Flu?
“’It wasn't all that long ago that we were asking China difficult questions about the steps Chinese authorities took to protect human lives from SARS-CoV-2 in the COVID pandemic. Now, we must ask ourselves many of these questions[...]We are at a crucial crossroad where we will either elude a new pandemic or see one take off, risking 10 to 20 million lives.’"
Unfortunately, the public response to Bird Flu has so far made the same early mistakes as it did during COVID-19; health officials are focused on symptomatic individuals/animals rather than testing and prevention. As Dr. Deborah Birx recently told CNN, “‘We have to switch from [monitoring] symptoms to[...]definitive laboratory testing. We have the capacity to do that today.’” Her call has been partially answered. The CDC has begun wastewater testing, and multiple drug companies are working to improve our existing vaccines.
There is some slight good news, however; whatever strain of flu becomes the next pandemic virus, it will still be an enveloped virus. Enveloped viruses are viruses with an outer lipid coating; this makes them extremely susceptible to neutralization since damage to their lipid coating prevents them from becoming infectious.
The simplest way to neutralize an enveloped virus is with soap and water, but you can’t use soap and water in the air. That’s where ActivePure Technology comes in. ActivePure has proven effective at neutralizing more than 99.99% of enveloped viral particles in the air and at drastically reducing them on surfaces. Though not tested directly against H5N1, devices with ActivePure Technology have been tested against the H5N8 strain of Bird Flu. We also have results against SARS-CoV-2 and swine flu.
Whether the next pandemic is Bird Flu or a dark horse, whether it comes tomorrow or in a decade, you can’t depend on the speed of the initial public response. Take charge of the air you breathe with ActivePure.
